Background · Concepts
The prerequisites.
Deep-dive tutorials on the ideas the papers lean on. Each is versioned; a paper pins the version it was written against, so its references stay stable as the background evolves.
- Concept·tutorial background/calibration
Calibration
A plain-language tutorial: what it means for a stated probability to be honest, how to check when events are common, and the ladder of remedies when they are rare.
- Concept·tutorial background/clustered-data
Clustered Data
A plain-language tutorial: what changes when your observations arrive in groups rather than one at a time, why the sample is smaller than it looks, and why the mistake this causes is invisible to the check most people run.
- Concept background/contagion
Contagion
A plain-language tutorial: the two reasons failures arrive together (shared exposure and true propagation), why real disasters are usually both, and why the fix for one makes the other worse.
- Concept·explanatory background/extreme-value-theory
Extreme Value Theory
A plain-language tutorial: how to estimate losses worse than anything you have ever seen, what gives you the right to try, and what the answer costs. One dataset, carried from first look to final estimate.